Last week President Trump announced that the European Union was not negotiating to his liking (apparently no planes or golf courses to offer), so as of June 1st there will be a 50% tariff on all goods coming out of the EU that aren’t assembled in the US. He then announced this weekend that the date is now July 9th, to give time for “negotiations.” Since “Liberation Day” worked so well, why not do it again?

It is clear that Trump does not understand economics or how the economy works, but does he have a pulse on where Americans are on the economy and trade?

Not surprisingly, the answer to that question is complicated.

Support for Tariffs

Overall, just under a third of Americans (31%) support the President’s approach, while 47% have a more negative view. Not shockingly there are some meaningful differences in viewpoints when you start looking at the demographic breakdowns (you can mess around with an interactive graph on our website: here). Surprising no one, Trump voters are much more favorable to the approach compared to Harris voters. What is more surprising is that Red States (47% oppose) are slightly less supportive than swing states (45% oppose) when it comes to the President’s approach.

One of the bigger effects on these views are education and gender. Overall, men are more supportive of the President’s approach on tariffs than women (36% vs 27%). However when we overlay education on the data, the biggest supporters of the plans by far are college educated men (42% support), while the strongest detractors are non-college women (53% oppose). College educated women are not far off in their opposition (47% oppose), while non-college men (44% oppose) are also close by.

Look, most of us struggled in Econ 101, but trust me, if you went to college, none of your college professors were teaching you that tariffs are a good approach for economic stability and efficient markets. Do better, my dudes.

Specific Effects

Since tariffs are not likely to affect all industries and people evenly (even college-educated men agree on this) we wanted to get an understanding of how the likely effects were viewed. Overall, small businesses are viewed as getting the least benefits, while large businesses are seen as the biggest beneficiary. Just about a third of Americans (32%) think the tariffs will help small businesses, while 49% think it will have little to no positive effect on them.

These numbers are very similar to the overall view on the effects that the tariffs will have on the economy as a whole. Just about half (49%) of Americans think it will provide little to no help, while 31% think the approach will helpful for the economy.

Most importantly, a plurality of Americans feel, on average, that they will get the shorter end of the stick on the tariffs (45% feel they will generally get no benefit out of it) while just under a third (32%) feel that there will be positive outcomes for themselves.

As with the overall support of the approach there is less effect on views based on whether you live in a Blue, Red, or Swing State. One of the more important differences is the question of how the tariffs will affect “your area of the country.” In both Red and Blue states 42% feel that the tariffs will provide little to no help, while 34% and 36% of Blue and Red State residents, respectively, feel that they will be helpful. For residents in Swing States, 37% feel that the tariffs will be helpful while 47% feel the effects will provide little to no help.

Arguably the most pessimistic cohort when it comes to the outcomes of the tariffs (not counting partisan based groups) are residents of rural areas. Indeed, a majority feel that the President’s approach will have little to no help for the economy overall (second highest to suburban residents), 49% of rural residents feel the same about the US auto industry, 48% feel there will be little positive for themselves and their family (just 28% feel the tariffs will be helpful, by far the lowest of the three area types), and 46% feel there will be little to no positive effect for the US farm industry.

Checking in on our dudes that didn’t pay attention in class, let’s at least give an A for consistency. Among men and women who have not received a college degree, there are differences on a good number of the groups we asked about. More than half of non-college women (56%) feel the tariffs will provide little to no help on the economy overall (8 points higher than men), and 55% of women feel the same about the effects on their own family. Men are more bullish with 41% feeling that there will be little to no help, while 35% feel it will be helpful.

Looking at those with a college degree, men with a college degree are overly optimistic with a majority feeling the tariffs will be helpful to themselves, small businesses, the economy overall, the US auto industry etc. The only group that a majority does not feel will see a benefit is the US farm industry where “just” 48% feel there will be a positive effect.

Among women with a college degree a majority feel that small businesses, the economy overall, and large business will get little to nothing out of the tariff approach. A plurality feel the same way about the remaining groups. The US auto industry has the closest divide among this cohort with 49% of college educated women feeling the industry will get a raw deal while 37% feel it will help. A difference of “only” 12 points.

Women with a college degree might have paid closer attention in Micro and Macro econ. And by “might” let’s just go with “did.”

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