There has clearly been a lot in the news recently that took attention away from the White House divorce, but that doesn’t mean we won’t keep looking at the data. These results were collected June 7-11th, before the Army’s 250th anniversary parade and the U.S. Strikes o Iranian nuclear sites. While these events are unlikely to shift the views Americans hold of the two main characters, the semi-make up could have an effect, especially on the two questions we are talking about in this piece.

Two of the more direct challenges during the social media breakup were Elon Musk claiming that President Trump would have lost if it wasn’t for him, and then Trump threatening to cancel all of Musk’s contracts. While it would be impossible to prove the first statement, it is also hard to believe that the government could logistically just cut off Starlink and SpaceX on a moment’s notice. Canceling the purchase of any Teslas feels more doable with other competitors in the market who have products available to buy.

Regardless of feasibility, it is interesting to see what Americans think about the two main threats being made.

Would Trump Have Lost Without Musk?

Overall, a strong plurality of Americans agree with Musk’s assertion that he was the king maker. Just under half of Americans (48%) agree that Trump would have lost, including just about a third (31%) who strongly agree with the idea. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 30% disagree, including 20% who disagree strongly.

Age has a clear effect on the overall agreement the Trump couldn’t have done it without Elon. A majority of GenZ (53%) feel that Trump would have lost with 48% of Millennials, and 46% of GenX agreeing. Boomers (44%) are the least likely to agree overall, but have the highest concentration of those who agree strongly.

Gender and education also show some interesting differences. Typically college educated men have been more on Trump’s side, but when it comes to Musk’s effect on the race, a strong majority (58%) agree with Musk that he was the difference. A majority of college educated women (53%) share this view, albeit with a much larger concentration of those who strongly agree.

Non-college women are the most likely to feel that Trump did not need Elon, with 37% disagreeing that Trump would have lost.

Where you live also has some effect on the numbers, which makes sense on a couple of levels. Voters in Red and Blue states were less likely to notice the involvement by Musk since the outcome of the states was not in question. Swing state residents are probably still recovering from the barrage of ads and information that were sent their way in the later stages of the campaign.

Arguably the most damning breakdown is how Trump voters feel about this question. Not surprisingly, Harris voters are in strong agreement that Musk was the difference maker. More than half (51%) believe so strongly, while an additional 19% agree. Just 13% do not agree that Trump would have lost without him.

Trump voters are more likely to disagree with the sentiment. However, a third (32%) agree that their candidate would likely have lost if it weren’t for Musk. Just about half (49%) of Trump voters feel that he would have won without him.

Overall, Americans do not view Musk’s claim as a universal truth, but most do feel that without his spending and public events it would have been a Harris Administration.

Should Trump Cancel All of Musk’s Contracts?

When Musk dropped his “without me you would be nothing” claim, Trump was quick to threaten the removal of all contracts that Musk’s companies have with the Federal Government. While this may have been an idle threat, Americans are very divided on whether or not the President should act on his threat. Over a third (39%) agree that Trump should void the contracts, while 35% disagree, and 27% are somewhere in the middle.

The divide is present in all three categories of political state types. Residents of Red States are both more in agreement overall, and have the highest concentration of residents who strongly believe that Trump should end the contracts that Musk holds. Swing state residents lean slightly towards disagreeing (38% disagree compared to 31% who agree), while Blue state residents are evenly divided with 37% agreeing that the contracts should be canceled and the same percentage disagreeing. In arguably bad news for Musk, Red state residents lean toward canceling the contracts (42% vs. 32%).

Before the President gets a little too excited, his voters would like to have a word. While 37% of Trump voters would like to see the White House jettison the contracts, a larger concentration (43%) would disagree and do not support the cancellation.

Among Trump voters, 23% agree with both the sentiment that he would have lost without Elon, and that Trump should cancel the contracts. At the same time, 54% disagree with both sentiments, and 24% agree only with one of the statements.

Overall, this part of the fight doesn’t have a clear winner, and is likely why we have seen a bit of both camps walking back their statements. At the same time there are clearly some big Elon fans in the Trump coalition, and the President will likely need to be careful not to push away too many of them.

There is an interactive graph on our website where you can see the numbers based on state type, generation, education, and 2024 vote.

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