With the breakup of the year playing out in public over the past week, there are so many questions of where the Trump/Musk divorce goes from here. As a quick recap (not that people really need it), Elon Musk had been an unofficial part of the Trump Administration from Day One of Trump 2.0, heading up DOGE. Recently he left, mostly due to the law that unofficial placements (i.e. where not approved by Congress) have a 160-day shelf-life before they have to move on. It seemed pretty clear that even without the rule, the relationship was being strained.

The so-called Big Beautiful Bill that passed the House by one vote, was not settling well with Musk, and his light chirping turned into full-out hostility the second he left the Administration. Trump then made a public statement during a press conference, questioning Musk’s opinions on the bill, and then Musk took to Twitter/X to start live tweeting thoughts…what could go wrong? Well, after some comments about the bill, Musk then moved on to stating that Trump’s name is in the Epstein Files and that’s why they haven’t been released, and Trump then threatened to cut off all government contracts that Musk’s companies have. Let’s call this an unfriendly divorce.

So far this past weekend, Trump made it clear that there will be no mending of this relationship, but we’ll have to wait to see if he TACOs on this or if he has more backbone on Musk than he does on Tariffs. As this has been unfolding, there are some Trump loyalists (cough, cough…Steve Bannon) who are trying to use this as an opportunity to get back in to Trump’s good graces, while others seem to be taking a measured approach, at least in public. Where this ends up is anyone’s guess, but it will be interesting to see if this effects how voters are viewing the President, the BBB, and DOGE.

While it is too early to get a good read on where voters are on the breakup, we can look at how Musk has been viewed over the past four months to start to guess where things can go.

Americans on Musk

From the beginning, Americans have been very divided on their view on Musk’s involvement in the administration. Twenty-seven (27) percent strongly supported his involvement while 25% were strongly opposed.  At the same time, 17% were ok with his involvement but wish he was less front and center, while 17% said that they were not very supportive, and 13% indicated that they were indifferent. Over the next month support increased, but not as much as those who strongly opposed who moved past the strongly support cohort by 1 point.

The next two months saw a decline in both support measurements and an increase in those who oppose. In the middle of May, a third of Americans (33%) strongly opposed Musk’s involvement, while 14% took a slightly less negative view. The strong support crowd dropped down to 25%, while those who were generally on board were at 18%.

Partisan Views

Not surprisingly Harris voters were never on board with Musk and that sentiment grew over time.

Also not surprising is that Trump voters have been very supportive of Musk. The question now becomes, how much of Trump’s voters will start to soften their support if Musk continues to distance himself from the President and potentially tries to start a new party. The number is likely to be small, but who should likely be more worried are the Congressional Republicans who were the stewards of the bill. If Musk pushes the anti-BBB narrative over the next few weeks, it will be difficult for Senate Republicans to weather the storm.

More troubling for the GOP is that 68% of voters who split their ticket in 2024 and voted for Biden and Congressional Republicans were strongly opposed Musk’s involvement in May (sample size caution on this group).

State Type

When looking at Red States versus Blue States, the results were a little surprising. In Blue States, voters started out the term being closely divided on Musk. Over the first month of the administration, strong support moved to the most popular view, although strong opposition also grew. That bump was short lived and the strong support view dropped over the next couple months, while strong opposition headed in the opposite direction.

In Swing States Musk’s popularity grew over the past two months. Indeed, at the middle of May a majority of voters in these key states supported his involvement at some level. While slightly more voters strongly oppose than strongly support (31% vs 29%), over 52% of voters hold a more supportive view. As mentioned above, it is hard to believe that a massive number of voters will now become sour on Trump, because of this, but it certainly will be interesting to see the effect.

Arguably the most surprising numbers are in Red States. In early February strong support for Musk’s involvement was at 31% while strong opposition was at 24%. Over the next three months movement on these opinions was not steady, but a few weeks ago 32% strongly opposed Musk’s involvement (up 8 points from February) and 23% strongly supported (down 8 points).

Other groups that are worth watching are those who were most supportive of Musk, regardless of whom they voted for in 2024. This is especially true for college educated men. How much this effects their view of the President and the party, will be interesting to watch.

There is an interactive graph on our website where you can see the numbers based on state type, generation, education, and 2024 vote.

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