So, What Do We Think About the BBB?

With Congress pulling the tax and spending bill across the finish line earlier this month (the bill typically referred to as the Big Beautiful Bill) and the President signing it into law, what is arguably the most important phase of the process begins in earnest, which is selling the bill to the American public. Large pieces of legislation are often unpopular in the beginning since there are always bits and pieces of the bill that opponents can point to in order to easily gin up opposition.

As an example, right after the ACA or “Obamacare” was passed in 2010, 46% of Americans supported the bill (according to the Kaiser Family Foundation) and 40% opposed. Those numbers dropped over the next few years, but have then rebounded, and the ACA has been in net positive territory since 2017. For the BBB, however, support is not starting in an incredibly strong place.

Overall, Americans currently report (according to our latest national survey conducted July 11-16^th ) that they support about one-third of the bill on average (35%), oppose 19% of it, and are indifferent on about half (47%).

In general, these numbers aren’t terrible; however, when we break down the views on support, the news becomes a little more troubling for the White House and Congress.

Just 16 percent of Americans strongly support the bill, with an additional 10 percent supporting a strong majority of the bill. By far the largest group is those who indicate they do not support the bill, or have very low levels of support. This group makes up 43% of the public, and an additional 16% have lower levels of support.

Outside of partisanship, which is by far the biggest driving factor (more on that in a moment), gender has the biggest effect on views, followed by race and age. Looking at the breakdown by gender, the difference on the upper support levels is not that different, with 17% of men strongly supporting the bill (80 to 100 on a 0-100 scale), while 16% of women feel the same way.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the views are quite different. Overall, 36% of men have little to no support for the bill (0-19 on the scale), while a majority of women (50%) indicate their low to no level of support.

Looking at the breakdown of support by race, White Americans have the highest concentration of strong supporters. A majority of Black and Hispanic Americans have little to no support for the bill, while Asian Americans have the smallest concentration of those who have little to no support for the bill. One in five (21%) White Americans strongly support the bill, while 39% fall into the little to no support category. This is the only racial cohort where strong support is in double digits. At the same time, 39% say they have little to no support for the bill.

A majority of Black Americans (55%) and Hispanic Americans (50%) give little to no support for the bill. Just 10% of Black Americans and 19% of Hispanic Americans express higher levels of support for the bill, while roughly double those numbers fall into the low support category.

Asian Americans have the most diverse range of opinions, but the overall support is not high. About a third (32%) give little to no support for the bill, while 27% indicate low support, and 23% are in the middle (40-59 on the 0-100 scale). One in 5 (19%) support the bill, with 7% overall falling into the strong support category.

Age shows a clear pattern on the support side of the equation, although the pattern on the opposition end is less uniform.

Strong support increases from the youngest generation of adults to the oldest generation. Just 6% of Gen Z Americans strongly support the bill, compared to 22% of Boomers. When it comes to those who give little to no support for the bill, a majority of Gen Z fall into this category, while the next three generations are in the mid to low 40s.

The clearest pattern by far is when we look at income. The higher the income, the higher the support and the lower the opposition.

While support is highest at higher income levels, it is not incredibly strong support. One in five (19%) Americans making $80,000 or more a year strongly support the bill, while 32% of this cohort fall into the little to no support category. Sixteen percent (16%) of those making $40k or less strongly support the bill, which is not far off from their more well-off compatriots; however, the majority (50%) do not support the bill at all or show very low levels of support.

Not surprisingly, Trump voters are more supportive than Harris voters, however what should be concerning to the White House is that the support levels are not nearly as strong as they arguably need them to be. This does not mean that a slew of Trump voters are going to turn away from their Dear Leader, but it does bring the overall support levels down, and shows that this is clearly not as beautiful a bill as advertised.

There are a few more red flags for Republicans. First, when we look at state type, the strongest opposition is not in Blue States, but in Swing States. Indeed, a majority of residents in 2024 swing states (51%) give little to no support to the bill. Blue State residents have the second highest concentration (44%), while just under 2 in 5 Red State residents have little to no support for the bill.

Support is strongest in Red States; however, even in the more friendly territory for Republicans, less than a third (32%) indicate support of 60 or above on the 0 to 100 scale.

When looking at the 2024 Congressional vote, there is both better news and bad news for Congressional Republicans. On the plus side, strong support for the bill is one point higher than Trump voters, and a majority of 2024 Republican supporters (58%) support the bill.

On the downside for Congressional Republicans, there is a much stronger opposition among Democratic voters, and the views of those who did not vote in their Congressional election are downright horrific for Republicans. Among this latter group, 51% give little to no support for the bill, while just 15% indicate that they support it. Nearly 1 in 5 (19%) give low levels of support, while 15% are more in the indifferent range.

Direct Effect

While overall support is telling, another way to look at how voters are feeling is by looking at how they view the effects the bill will have on them and their family. On this question, there is worse news for Republicans. On average, Americans feel that 34% of the bill will be personally good for them, while 47% will be bad for them and their family. Clearly, this is not where you want to be when passing massive legislation.

Women feel, on average, that half of the bill will be bad for them and their families, while 31% of the bill will help. Men are less negative, but the overall feeling is the same in that the bill will do more harm than good.

The bill is underwater among all age groups when it comes to the perceived benefit. Even among Boomers, who were the most supportive age group overall, we find that this generation feels that more than half the bill (52%) will be bad for them and their family.

Not surprisingly, 2024 Trump voters have the highest concentration of perceived benefit of the bill. Overall, Trump voters feel that a majority of the bill (57%) will help them, while a quarter (24%) will be bad for them and their family. Harris voters feel even more strongly that the bill will hurt them.

The views on personal benefits are especially troubling for Republicans when looking at state type. Overall, Red State residents have the highest average view when it comes to the percentage of the bill that will help them personally (38%), but even in these more friendly landscapes, on average, Red State residents feel that 43% of the bill will hurt them.

Residents of Swing States are the least bullish on the bill. On average, those living in Purple States feel that 52% of what is in the bill will be bad for them, while just 29% will benefit them and their families.

While Congress got past the first finish line (passing the bill), this is just the first stage. There are a few stages to go, and based on where the numbers are now, it seems that they will be dealing with serious headwinds when entering the “sell the bill” phase.

Check out the interactive charts on our website

What Happens Next is out