Trump is now 2-1 when it comes to General Elections, joining Grover Cleveland as the only two presidents to win non-consecutive terms. While Trump 2.0 feels both similar and different from the first go around, it is clear that lessons were learned by Team Trump and they have blown past norms and laws at breakneck speed, helped by a very willing Supreme Court, who no longer is worried about hiding behind a consistent judicial philosophy and instead is just looking to give Trump as much power as possible (let’s not be shocked if they reverse course the next time a Dem is in office).

The federal elections that followed the first two years of the initial Trump presidency were generally positive for Democrats. They picked up 40 seats in the House and took back the majority they lost in the 2010 election, and picked up 7 gubernatorial offices. Democrats also had a net loss of two seats in the Senate although a few of the states that were lost were incredibly tough places for Democrats to win (North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri).

While the vibes are screaming 2017 all over again, does this mean 2026 could be another 2018? Obviously, it is impossible to know the answer to this with more than a year to go before the election, but we can look at the patterns we saw in 2017 and compare them to 2025. Whether past is prologue is anyone’s guess, but there certainly are some similarities in the data.

2017

Through the first eight months of 2017, Trump’s job approval was not exactly stellar. Taking average of public polls in each month (not a perfect way to compile the data since it is not factoring in different pollsters and methodologies, but easier for the analyst), Trump entered office with 46% of Americans disapproving of the job he was doing as President. That number continued to grow throughout the year through August and ended at just over 56%.

At the same time, when looking at the generic Congressional horse race, Democrats entered Trump 1.0 with an eight point advantage over the GOP. Over the winter and spring, Democratic support slipped, but Republican support did as well.

2025

Jumping into this year, we see similar patterns but with slightly muted results. Trump started his second go-around with 43% of Americans disapproving. This rating has now increased to 51%, however, that is nearly five points lower than it was eight years ago.

The generic Democratic Congressional candidate had increased support from January through April by four points, and has since dipped slightly, ending August at roughly the same place where the party started this year. After a bump in February, the generic GOP candidate has slowly but steadily declined, ending the summer about three points behind the Democratic candidate. This is about a third of the spread that we saw in 2017.

When looking at how the numbers moved for Democrats in these two years, in general, the movement has been similar. There were ebbs and flows in 2017, and a similar pattern this year.

The Republican numbers are showing a slightly different view. The increase in support through the month of February was present in both years, as was the downward trajectory from that point. However, the generic GOP candidate stared at a higher point and did not drop quite as rapidly.

Trump’s numbers have also followed a similar path, but the growth in the negative view of his job performance has not increased as quickly as it did in 2017.

Looking at these numbers, it is tough to argue that Democrats seem to be in a better position currently than they were in 2017. One could argue that the Democrats are in a similar position compared to eight years ago; however there is more data to say that it is slightly worse:

1. Trump’s disapproval is not as high and is not growing steadily.

2. Republican support is currently four points higher than it was in 2017

3. The gap between Democrats and the GOP is currently three points. In 2017, it was nine.

There is still a long way to go before the 2026 election, but so far, the numbers are meh at best.

The Lincoln Park Strategies Team