For the second time, Americans are rolling into a mid-term election after two years of a Trump Presidency with Democrats hoping to take back both chambers of Congress. In 2018, Democrats needed to win 25 seats to win the majority, and in the Senate they needed to win two seats to take over that majority. 2018 marked a highwater mark in retirements from the House with 20 Democratic members and 44 Republican members announcing that they were not going to run for election that November. In the end, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats (the largest Democratic gain since 1974) and a net loss of two seats in the Senate.

Fast forward either year and a lot feels familiar but not the same. Democrats need to flip just three seats to take the Majority in the House, and four seats in the Senate to do the same. This election there are also a good number of retirements, with 15 Democrats having announced they won't be running again, and 17 Republicans having said the same. Additionally, 28 members are running for a different office and therefore won't be on the ballot as Congressional candidates. This group is heavily Republican leaning with 20 Republican House members running for a different office.

In 2017 there were 14 special Congressional elections, and while no seats switched parties, Democratic candidates were outperforming 2016 margins by around 10 points on average. In 2025 there were 11 special Congressional elections. No seat switched parties, but Democrats were increasing their vote share by 10-15 percentage points in most cases.

While there are many differences, the one clear similarity is the occupant of the White House. In 2018 Trump’s disapproval (using the Real Clear Politics average) was above 50% the whole year. From June through early October of 2018 his disapproval rating ranged from a high of 53.9 and a low of 52.0. While 2018 could be considered a relatively straight line, 2026 has shown a different pattern.

Since March of this year, Trump’s disapproval has been mostly up and to the right. While this might be the desired pattern for profits and sales, it is certainly not what you are looking for when it comes to your job disapproval. Currently, Trump’s disapproval is just under 60% which is a historic high for any President and has increased by 6.7 points since January of this year.

While the views of the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania have a big impact on the overall direction of an election, it is not the only number that matters. The overall support levels for each party’s candidates will ultimately determine who is in control of Congress in January of 2027, and so far, the picture is different for Democrats this year versus 2018. In both years, Democrats have had a net polling advantage. The overall advantage tended to be bigger in 2018 than what we have seen in 2026, however the pattern is arguably better for Democrats this cycle.

In 2018 Democrats started the year with a 12-point advantage in January which then dropped steadily through May when the advantage was just over six points. That advantage held relatively steady through September and then jumped up to nearly 9 points at the beginning of October. Then finally, the day before the election, the Democratic advantage was 7.2 points. This year the Democrats started with a 4.3-point advantage and for the most part has been steadily increasing throughout the year. In June it was a six-point advantage and currently sits at 8.5 points, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than what was recorded in 2018 in early October. 

Overall, the polling data points to a similar outcome in November to what we saw in 2018, at least at the Congressional level. Right before the election in 2018 Cook Political report rated 194 seats either safe or likely Democratic, and 16 lean Democratic. On the other side of the aisle, they had 166 seats rated as safe or likely GOP, and 29 lean GOP, with 30 in toss-up category. Currently they have 197 seats rated as Safe/Likely Democratic (3 more than 2018), 11 in lean Democratic (5 less), 195 Safe/Likely GOP (29 more than 2018), and 10 lean GOP (19 less than 2018). This year they currently have just 22 seats rated as toss-up (8 less).

We will have to wait four more weeks to answer this question. National surveys do not equal an exact answer for specific Congressional elections, and with the mid-term redistricting over the past year, there are even more unknowns than usual. That being said, here is how the overall landscape is shaping up compared to 2018.

In 2018 Democrats basically won the Safe and Likely seats, the lean Dem seats, the toss-ups, and a few of the lean Republicans. If the Democrats do the same this year they would end up with about 230 seats, or a net gain of about 15 seats. Could it be more? Sure. It could also be less. That being said the odds of not winning back the House are incredibly low as are the odds of a landslide similar to 2018. The later is due more to the districts than the atmospherics, at least with the view a month out.

The Lincoln Park Strategies Team